Back to the vibes we go today.

First of all, thank you, truly, for the support. Victaurs is growing because of you. A little over a year in, and we have crossed 4,000 followers on Substack, 3,000 on X, and subscribers now span 49 states (Wyoming, we are still waiting on you) plus we’ve made friends now across the globe. Monthly blog views have climbed from 4,000 in May 2024 to more than 35,000 today. We are also starting to consistently overlap with some of the sharpest names out there, including Citrini, Net Interest, Conks, and Doomberg.

It is working. We are winning. And this is just the beginning.

To all of you that replied & commented on the last Euro bank write up, thank you, I appreciated all of the feedback. I do think that one’s a winner. It’s not without risk, but nothing is anymore.

And because I know everyone loves even more timely bank picks. This one’s for you. Euro style. Because as Notorious said in 1994 on Ready to Die, things done changed.

Some Trump Macro Thoughts

First a quick vibes check on Trump.

This whole thing (equity market direction) still hinges on what Trump decides to do with tariffs, which is another way of saying it is all a bit of a crapshoot. If you look at the data honestly, the story is shifting fast. We have gone from a world where "no recession" was the dominant belief to one where soft data is souring, consumer sentiment is sliding, earnings revisions are drifting lower almost everywhere, and global capex is getting choked off by uncertainty.

Here at home in the United States, my opinion is simple. We are much closer to the end of the tariff saga than the beginning. The vibe has changed. It feels much more like "let’s walk these tariffs back without making it obvious" than "let’s escalate." It feels more like "we have to care about the equity markets," and absolutely like "we cannot afford to blow up the bond market."

The week where ten-year yields traded inside a wild sixty basis point range was the real tell. That kind of chaos ended the tough talk in a hurry.

Now earnings have not blown up and companies are posting strong if not uncertain earnings. The consumer is still consuming as well. And in American Banks, the numbers have largely been good. I still think there’s a golden age ahead of us there too. So maybe this pieces is more of a piece of relative value/relative economic growth argument than anything.

So without further adieu, keep reading for what’s done changed in European Banks, the winners going forward, and some fades for fun.